North korea what will happen now

Perhaps Kim himself has not decided. It may be that Kim is determined to proceed with his nuclear weapons programme unless he is halted by military force. Is a North Korean nuclear weapons arsenal something the world can live with?

South Korea and Japan would certainly have to consider building a nuclear deterrent. Taiwan might also think about it. And that could be Osama bin Laden. But could North Korea then be deterred from attacking South Korea? An artillery barrage against Seoul would wreck the city in a matter of hours.

The North could infiltrate squads of special forces to destroy critical infrastructure in the South. Because of these possibilities, military action is likely to be a last resort. At any rate, it is likely to be postponed until the Iraqi crisis has diminished in intensity. Is there any hope that a negotiated settlement of some sort with North Korea is at all feasible? Is it worth trying for at this stage? No one knows the answer to the first question but trying for a settlement at this stage is absolutely necessary.

Kim Jong Il probably will proceed with his weapons programme unless he is forced to stop or finds a price for stopping it that satisfies his needs. He is not an expansionist dictator in the mould of Hitler. Nuclear weapons, he probably thinks, will deter an attack, thus solving one of his security problems. Nuclear weapons might even enable him to save some of the enormous sums of money he is spending on his military.

If he became convinced that he could safely give up a key military programme in return for other things essential to regime survival, he might do so. Those other things are essentially economic.

So, what negotiating strategy should be adopted in dealing with North Korea? First, should it be a multilateral or a bilateral US approach? Second, should it be narrowly focused on the nuclear and missile issues or on a broader agenda? The Bush administration says that this is a regional problem which must be settled in some multilateral fashion.

The administration also says that the first step must be for North Korea to correct the problem that caused the crisis. Pyongyang must destroy its uranium enrichment equipment, restore the arrangements established by the Agreed Framework, and according to some spokespersons, eliminate any vestige of a nuclear weapons manufacturing capacity.

The latter goes beyond where the Agreed Framework requires North Korea to be at this stage, but some penalty should be paid by the North for its flagrant violation of the agreement, many influential Americans argue.

The minimum that would be necessary, many suggest, would be to take out of North Korea the spent fuel rods that North Korea could use to derive plutonium. Another step would be to destroy the reprocessing plant at Yongbyon.

North Korea has said that its nuclear programmes are negotiable, but only if the United States formally undertakes not to attack North Korea.

A letter from the president is insufficient, they say, when that possibility has been raised. Most of them have significant economic interests that are involved. Adding Russia and perhaps some other countries to its membership would make sense. A multilateral security mechanism also may be required to oversee the transition to a more peaceful order in and around the Korean peninsula.

So the Bush administration has it right when it says that a regional solution is needed. With so little access to outside information, he can paint a picture of things being bad everywhere - not just in sealed off North Korea. He also described efforts to beat Covid as a "protracted war".

That signals that border closures are not easing any time soon. That is the concern of many aid organisations. The sealed border has prevented some food and medicine getting through. Most NGOs have had to leave the country, unable to get staff and supplies in or out.

Pyongyang has always called for "self-reliance". It has closed itself off, just as it may need assistance and it is unlikely to ask for help. If it continues to push away all offers of international assistance, as ever, it may be the people who pay the price. N Korea's Kim warns of crisis amid famine threat. The South Koreans enslaved in the North's mines. And it is hard to imagine Kim Jong Un doing nothing while the U.

Seoul lies within artillery range of the North. Kim could retaliate even without using nuclear weapons. That would mean any attack on nuclear facilities would have to be accompanied by attacks on other installations threatening the South.

In other words, the war would widen even before Kim retaliated. The other set of preemptive options, ones designed to overturn the regime, suffer their own set of imponderables. If Kim were killed, would the regime come apart or rally around the family? War gaming suggests a dangerous stew of violence, refugees and a race to control those nuclear weapons would ensue. In that stew, the gaming suggests, allies, not to mention China, would be as much of a problem as opposition from residual North Korean forces.

So regime change looks more and more attractive. But better that it come from within. So is the chance that an insider will finally get angry enough to take him out, never mind the consequences. Treverton, the former chair of the U. China needs to get serious. By Victor Cha. For decades, China has played a smoke-and-mirrors game on North Korea that traps the U. First, U. Second, China has long been a free rider in negotiations, with little at stake in their short-term success or failure.

In the past deals, the U. Second, the U. President Donald Trump. But after the U. Last year, North Korea cut several inter-Korean communications lines and demolished a joint liaison center near the border. Seoul said Tuesday it hopes the hotline restoration will be the first step in a wider improvement of ties.

South Korean officials have not commented on the possibility of another meeting. Pyongyang had been quiet. Since last year, North Korea has mostly focused on domestic issues, including the coronavirus. An outbreak in the North could be devastating, since the country has an uneven health infrastructure and limited medical supplies. But last month, Pyongyang hinted it may be open to talks, with Kim saying Pyongyang should be ready for both dialogue and confrontation with Washington.

The administration of U. It has also said it supports improved inter-Korean relations.